Can India Resist Sanction Pressure? The Economics of Cheap Russian Crude

SYNOPSIS

India is under growing U.S. pressure to buy discounted Russian crude, yet its stance remains firmly rooted in economic logic and energy security. With Russian oil perfectly suited to Indian refineries and saving the country billions, New Delhi views these imports as practical, not political. While sanctions and diplomatic heat intensify, India’s strategic autonomy ensures it won’t easily pivot to costlier alternatives that burden consumers. Instead, India continues to balance global expectations with national interests, adjusting when needed, but never compromising its core energy priorities.

India’s struggle to balance economic gains from cheap Russian oil against growing global sanction pressures.

If there is one thing Indian history teaches us, it is this: When the world pulls India in opposite directions, India learns to dance — sometimes gracefully, sometimes stubbornly, but always on its own terms. A similar trend is observed as New Delhi faces increasing pressure over its purchases of discounted Russian crude.

The United States has imposed tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods, accused India of financing Russia’s war effort, and tightened sanctions on Moscow’s biggest oil companies. Russia, meanwhile, gently reminds India that its barrels are “very beneficial” for the Indian economy. And India continues to maintain that its energy choices are guided by just one factor: the interests of the Indian consumer. This moment didn’t emerge suddenly. India’s energy map has been reshaped repeatedly by geopolitical shifts. When Iran and Venezuela were sanctioned, India lost access to nearly a fifth of its crude supply. Gulf nations filled the gap; the US stepped in too. But no disruption matched the upheaval brought by the Ukraine war. As Russia was pushed out of Western markets, it began offering heavy discounts on its Urals crude, a grade perfectly suited to Indian refineries.

Imports from Russia surged from 4 million tonnes to more than 87 million tonnes. While some argued India was becoming dependent on Moscow, the reality was more nuanced. Russian barrels didn’t replace the Gulf; they replaced everyone else — the US, Brazil, Mexico, Nigeria and more. And the discounts mattered. India saved nearly $9 billion annually, cushioning inflation and stabilising pump prices. The technical side matters as much as the economics. Most Indian refineries are calibrated for medium-to-heavy crude like Russia’s Urals. Switching quickly to lighter US shale would reduce diesel and jet fuel yields and require costly adjustments — a bill that would ultimately fall on domestic consumers. So the choice isn’t ideological. It’s structural.

Yet the pressure from Washington is intensifying. Former President Trump claimed Prime Minister Modi privately agreed to reduce Russian imports — a claim India distanced itself from. A delayed India–US trade deal now hangs in the balance. Analysts say Indian refiners can pivot away from Russia if sanctions tighten further, but doing so will raise fuel prices and disrupt refinery operations.

So, can India resist sanction pressure? For now, yes. Because energy security, economic logic, and strategic autonomy align on the same side. Russian crude remains practical, profitable, and compatible.

Will India bend? Unlikely.

Will it break? Never.

Will it improvise? Always.

The world may turn up the heat, but India knows how to keep the oil flowing, and the diplomacy simmering.

Aaradhya Gupta